Friday 27 November 2009

a coffee, quick ...

This is rubbing-eyes time.
Given current illiquidity, the little prank from Dubai could just turn out to be the minor "ooops!" that sets in motion a nasty chain reaction across markets.
Especially combining it with news from Greece and from german banks.

Note though that none of the above have a direct bearing on the US: when NY stock market reopen seriously next week (today is still affected by thanksgiving absentees) it might just shrug it all off and power ahead, given that it is dominated by machines.
But the bond market is more serious, or at least is supposed to be. We should take are cues from there.
And at the moment, they suggest no shrugging off... they have moved up relentlessly, just as the short term interest rate futures.
Some comfort, and possibly a hint of smugness, might then be derived by those long OTM puts that the wise haruspices would have accumulated over the last few weeks, as discussed you know where.

One wish one could just section a chicken, and take a peep inside.

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