Thursday 26 November 2009

is Dubai playing chicken?

A doubt is raised by the current news (or lack of) from the Gulf.
What game is Dubai playing? might that be a game of chicken ?
Summary:
Dubai World is asking to delay payment on ALL of its debt, includinig the convertible sukuk (the Nakheel) expirinig in a few days, 3.5 G$USD (G= 10^9=billion) .
Dubai should have received 10G$  from Abu Dhabi, in support. It received only 5... that's bad isn't it? well... Actually Dubai has drawn down only 1.

Now consider that it is Eid, a 2 week long holiday for the locals. It is also Thanksgiving, which traditionally starts the low liquidity time in most markets.

Could it be that Dubai is trying to spook the market? push down the prices of its own bonds, so as to buy them back much cheaper, maybe drawing down on those remaing 4G$? maybe using some arms-length, "unconnected" agencies...

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